Dead of the Long Tail?

[Lee Provoost]

Got this through Facebook by Ronald Pulleman: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/11/21/anderson_long_tail_fail/

This means that Andy has to rewrite his latest book? ;-)

[Niels van der Zeyst]

Not sure I agree. I find the research done quite poor arguments for completely debunking a quite solid argument (method and sample not very reliable). Whether the slope is steeper then expected, well.... this calls for a refinement of theory i guess. So, to my opinion the long tail still holds.

[andy mulholland]

i suspect that the real issue is that the theory of the Long Tail which has existed as a mathematically provable model for 50 to 60 years is generally not what is being quoted instead its the popularized version from the wired article in 2002 and that may have caught the imagination but is not always accurate to the principles!

and this robust defense might well be to make sure that i dont have to rewrite my book of course !

[Niels van der Zeyst]

A good example perhaps is a reserach done by a dutch postdoc on the topic. He concluded that in the c2c market real growth has been established through the internet and has lead to new markets instad of canaibalising existing ones. His argument for the existence of the ling tail: the ebays of this world are the long-tail. Andy, any links to you mathematical theory on the long tail?

[Chris Yapp]

The school of complexity at Oxford University gave an interesting lecture a couple of months ago on large scale life cycles of networks based on a sample of 500,000 users.
What it showed was that some groups would form in tails and become new hubs. Hoever if they didn't reach critical mass they would decline quickly. A lecture earlier in the year on citizen journalism showed that globally the concentration in market share online was almost identical to traditional media.Around 200 organisations control 90% plus of media in both worlds.
I'm fairly convinced that the long-tail ideas are largely peripheral and unsustainable. If I am wrong I think the model is going to be like fashion-based industries: something becomes hot ,has it's time and declines. Having a fashion brand makes you sustainable over short lived fads...