What are your 2009 Predictions?

[Chris Warner]

I predicted NOTHING: http://blogs.jackbe.com/2008/12/my-predictions-for-2009-nothing.html.

[Rick Mans]

As you might have read Chris we did some predictions on the CTO blog and the Technology blog of Capgemini. I put them together a in a Yahoo Pipe: http://pipes.yahoo.com/pipes/pipe.info?_id=0uISzRCt3RGLEK2i_w6H4A

[Chris Yapp]

1.Consolidation of European consulting and outsourcing players
2. SUN to fall into new owners
3. SAP to merge...( won't say who!)
4. Major web 2.0 players severely impacted by credit crunch. Valuations to plummet
5. Mobile players to consolidate
6. First major company to be bankrupted directly by Cybercrime
7. HP to make major EU acquisition
8. Consolidation of Indian pure play.
9. Major internet incident tests critical national infrastructure in G7.
10. Despite all above, life goes on and bottom of recession will be hit q3.

Merry Christmas
9.

[andy mulholland]

predicting individual elements is one way to look at this but another way is to look across the entire picture

i believe recession and more technology in the hands of everyone will produce another 'sea change' at the level of the 1990 shift in the adoption of PCs Network and the shift in the way busienss operated with business process re engineering, matrix working, the introduction of 'information' at the expense of 'computing' and the arrival of the client server based systems we know so well.

this time there is an additional element in the way that society and business have so much technology in every day use that is not part of IT, plus the ability for people to part time work virtually as effectively as a full time office based person. In the IT space look for SOA, Network based services, Unstructured content management, and security to be the new focus as the enabling layer to get to the development of clouds and cloud services on one hand, and on the other an explosion of sometime connected usually wireless based devices and services of all sorts.

the new era of technology in business, call it Business Technology or the vision of using technology that technovision paints, just donut mistake the fact that this could be a very very big shift. an awful lot of companies disaapeared in the move from computing to IT, ; digital, wang, prime, to take some of the biggest and others never really recovered CA, Compuware etc, and the new wave are all post the change; Microsoft, and Cisco, etc.

[Chris Warner]

Chris, I love the specificity of your predictions! With 'fall', bankrupted', and 'incident', it makes me feel like I am reading a movie script!

My own CTO, John Crupi, finally got around to his: http://blogs.jackbe.com/2009/01/web-20-in-2009-whats-out-whats-in.html. I particularly like the one about 'Mashup Analysts'...

[Chris Yapp]

Andy, Chris,

The sea change stuff is important. EDS was inhouse IT dept of GM. I HAVE A BET WITH A FRIEND THAT ONE OF THE cORPORATE E-UNIVERSITIES WILL BE FLOATED OFF FROM IT'S PARENT IN NEXT 2 YEARS. This will creat a real competitor to exisiting institutions.

Also IT outsourcing expanded out of the last recession. This time I think it's going to be shared services and BPO not pure IT because the savings are not enough for the scale of downturn and the IT costs savings have largely been banked ( in eyes of business not IS/IT).

andy mulholland said:

predicting individual elements is one way to look at this but another way is to look across the entire picture

i believe recession and more technology in the hands of everyone will produce another 'sea change' at the level of the 1990 shift in the adoption of PCs Network and the shift in the way busienss operated with business process re engineering, matrix working, the introduction of 'information' at the expense of 'computing' and the arrival of the client server based systems we know so well.

this time there is an additional element in the way that society and business have so much technology in every day use that is not part of IT, plus the ability for people to part time work virtually as effectively as a full time office based person. In the IT space look for SOA, Network based services, Unstructured content management, and security to be the new focus as the enabling layer to get to the development of clouds and cloud services on one hand, and on the other an explosion of sometime connected usually wireless based devices and services of all sorts.

the new era of technology in business, call it Business Technology or the vision of using technology that technovision paints, just donut mistake the fact that this could be a very very big shift. an awful lot of companies disaapeared in the move from computing to IT, ; digital, wang, prime, to take some of the biggest and others never really recovered CA, Compuware etc, and the new wave are all post the change; Microsoft, and Cisco, etc.